A strained election campaign
On November 3, 2020, in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, the Americans expressed their verdict on the face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden for the White House. During this period, many of us predicted a relatively easy victory for the experienced Biden, especially in view of his opponent's often deemed "calamitous" management of the health crisis. However, as with Trump's surprise victory four years earlier, the presidential candidate had a way to beat the odds. Indeed, it was only on November 7, after counting the numerous ballots sent by mail, that the Democratic candidate was officially declared the winner. One could then have been under the impression that the story had come to an end, but the New York Republican was still far from declaring himself defeated. This was followed by countless political and legal twists and turns to challenge an election that the incumbent President deemed "rigged". The apogee of these events took place on 6 January 2021. Trump supporters stormed Capitol Hill to put pressure on the American politicians who were validating Joe Biden's election at Congress at that very moment. The riot, which cost the lives of five people, including a police officer, particularly shocked people across the country and beyond. It was in this tense climate that Joe Biden's appointment was finally confirmed and that Donald Trump accepted his defeat, albeit reluctantly.
While a page of American history seems to be turning, the time has come to draw conclusions from these elections and to analyse the consequences of these major upheavals for American politics. The question is whether Joe Biden's election is in itself a return to normality, or whether it will exacerbate tensions in an American society that is already more divided than ever. What leeway is there for Biden, a president who was already in a fragile position even before he took office? What future for the "trumpist" current on the country's political scene? These are all crucial questions for us Europeans, whose future path on many issues remains linked to Washington's position. I am proposing you here a number of answers that will of course need to be developed further as events unfold.
Biden's victory does not bode well for the healing of the American society: The challenge is huge.
First of all, Biden's victory does not bode well for the long-term healing of the American political sphere for several reasons. First, Donald Trump's high results in the election confirm his strong electoral base and the mistrust of many American voters towards mainstream politicians. Second, although Joe Biden has managed to garner many votes by uniting Trump's opponents, he is far from inspiring the popular enthusiasm of former President Obama. Under these circumstances, it will be difficult for Biden to move from being an anti-Trump "bulwark" to being the leader of an extremely divided nation. Thirdly, the calamitous atmosphere in which the elections were held will further weaken the former vice president's term in office and will undoubtedly increase friction within American society. Thus, the road ahead seems to be fraught with difficulties for Biden, who will have to find the right words, and above all the right deeds, to ease current tensions and continue to bring people together.
The risk of a powerful comeback of Trump in the next presidential election and a destabilized Republican Party
On the side of “Team Trump”, while many uncertainties remain, the potential exists for the movement to maintain its popularity in the long term. Indeed, the non-conformism it embodies, its powerful personality, its well-honed communication techniques and, admittedly, its recklessness, are assets in a society that is divided and at odds with its elites. In addition to this, several figures from the close circle, or even family, of the former President have emerged who could take up the torch during the next elections. Finally, Donald Trump's hold on the Republican Party and its voters has been so strong that it is highly likely that the divorce will be extremely difficult from a strategic point of view. In any case, one thing is certain: far from being a one-off challenge to the American "establishment", Trump's election is indeed the emergence of a new political current that will have to be dealt with in the long term.
A gloomy political horizon, albeit giving reason for hope
It is clear that the future of the American political scene is uncertain with many clouds looming on the horizon. However, as is often the case in politics, a few elements allow us to hope for a positive outcome. First of all, while Biden's election does not necessarily reflect a decline in Trump's popularity, it is nonetheless a reassuring signal. Above all, it is a major opportunity for the Democratic party to recover from the debacle of 2016. Moreover, after the failure of the transition following Obama, the Democratic Party has some fresh minds that can breathe new life into the party. House of Representatives Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is an example of this new progressive Democratic party, in sharp contrast to the traditional elite that is criticized by a large part of the American electorate. Finally, while the Covid-19 crisis probably played a role in the defeat of Donald Trump, it represents an opportunity for the Biden camp if it is well handled. In this perspective, the federal government's efforts to support the most vulnerable as well as the progress of the vaccination programme will be key elements.
Conclusion
Will the election of Biden mean a return to normality for the American political scene? Nothing is less certain. Does it open a new chapter in a crisis that began after Trump's election? It seems considerably more likely. While the Biden era is likely to represent a period of respite, particularly in terms of Washington's foreign and trade policy, restoring confidence between the American establishment and voters will not be an easy task in the long run. One thing seems certain: the next four years, particularly in terms of managing the health crisis, will have a considerable impact on the future of the "Trump Movement".
Disclaimer:The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
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